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You understand...\n\nThe FTSE 100 sinks 52 points to 8,792 Oil rises on more intense threats between Israel and Iran Bank of England votes 6-3 to hold rates Today is 30th anniversary of AIM\n\nA mix of macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks put pressure on the FTSE 100 on Thursday, causing the index to close about 52 points lower at about 8,792 points. Continued conflict between Israel and Iran saw oil prices rally, with crude oil up more than 2% above $76 per barrel. \"Ongoing Israel-Iran missile attacks and the possibility of US involvement have increased worries of possible supply disruptions which pushed oil and gas prices to four-month highs,\" IG senior technical analyst Axel Rudolph said. \"Stock indices dropped while the gold price traded flat as silver and copper prices fell by around a percentage point amid the uncertainty.\"\n\nOil was up 2.3%, with crude about $76 per barrel. The UK economy remains fragile and may require a more aggressive easing cycle than markets are currently pricing in, according to Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist at BCA Research. \"With services inflation easing and labour market momentum fading, the MPC is set to maintain a quarterly pace of rate cuts through year-end,\" Savary noted. He added that this outlook keeps BCA Research \"biased toward lower UK rates, continued outperformance in gilts, and downside for sterling against the euro.\"\n\nRecruitment stocks in Europe fell sharply on Thursday after UK-based Hays warned of a steep drop in profits. The news also weighed on peers, with Page Group—seen as particularly exposed due to its 72% reliance on permanent hiring—falling about 6.5% to its lowest level since April. Randstad and Adecco shares also declined roughly 3.5% each. Jefferies analysts described the results as especially negative for Page Group given the sector-wide softness.\n\nA reminder that today is the 30th anniversary of London's junior market. To celebrate, have a read of our editor's AIM feature: '<a>AIM at 30: What it must do to secure the next three decades</a>'. Also any early investors in Wynnstay Properties (6,331%) total return since joining AIM in 1995, making it the best performer among AIM’s original members still quoted today, according to research by AJ Bell. NWF Group: a 920% total return since 1995; Hiscox, the insurer that started on AIM and is now a FTSE 100 name, delivering a 2,650% total return for early investors; Genus, which also progressed from AIM to the FTSE 250 as another demonstration of the junior market's main role as a launchpad for major growth. \"AIM has been called the ‘Wild West’ in the past and has had its fair share of disasters, yet it would be wrong to call the entire market a failure. It was designed to nurture growing companies, and the achievements of Hiscox and Genus prove it has been successful,\" says analyst Dan Coatsworth.\n\nOthers that have made the jump from AIM tiddler to the FTSE 250 or FTSE 100 include bookmaker Entain (started out as highly acquistive GVC Holdings), Future (see our feature on its '<a>path from a tiny computer games publisher to an ecommerce giant</a>'), Melrose Industries, Breedon Group, Domino’s Pizza Group, Safestore Holdings, Primary Health Properties and Big Yellow Group. Another notable alumni inlcude Booker, the wholesale retailer that moved from AIM to the main market before being acquired by Tesco for £3.7 billion; Entertainment One, owner of Peppa Pig rights, moved to the main market and was later acquired by Hasbro for £3.3 billion; and Centamin, the gold miner, moved from AIM to the main market and was recently acquired by AngloGold Ashanti for £1.9 billion.\n\nEnvironment Secretary Steve Reed has said the government is stepping up plans to temporarily nationalise Thames Water. Reed rejected demands to waive Ofwat's fines and said the ministers were ready to save the struggling utility giant if necessary, with reports suggesting a rescue via a special administration scheme \"if that were to become necessary.\" \"The company remains financially stable, but we’ve stepped up our preparations and stand ready for all eventualities,\" he told the House of Commons, after US private equity giant <a>KKR abruptly walked away from bidding for the company</a> two weeks ago. The UK's largest water company's creditors have proposed a £17 billion rescue plan, but they say this is only if Ofwat agrees to waive fines for the company.\n\nThe FTSE 100 is down 0.3% and FTSE 250 is almost 0.8% lower. It's not just a 10% drop for recruiter Hays (see below) that is weighing on the mid-cap index. NCC Group PLC, the tech firm, is down 10% after announcing a strategic U-turn for its cyber security division after revenues fell in the first half of its financial year. Cyber security turnover dropped 8%, which it said was due to a \"decline in our high-volume, lower value testing and compliance engagements as clients reacted to macroeconomic uncertainties.\" The division will shift towards \"strategic higher value engagements.\" Breedon Group is also down. Analysts at RBC have cut their forecasts, with a note out, saying rain and ice in the US, climate change challenges in Ireland and low ready mix volumes in GB have led to this. \"Temporary challenges may weigh on the share price, but in our mind the medium term investment case has not been derailed, and we would view any share price weakness as a buying opportunity.\"\n\nMid-tier oil and gas exploration stocks have been given a boost by signals that <a>the UK government will move to unlock new drilling in the North Sea</a>. Minister Ed Miliband is preparing to lift legal barriers that had blocked major fossil fuel projects, reversing a January court decision that halted the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields. The Scottish court had ruled the projects unlawful due to emissions regulations. Miliband now plans to amend the law on greenhouse gas emissions, enabling the development of these fields and potentially reviving the UK’s North Sea oil sector. Tullow Oil is up over 3$, Enquest over 5% and Jersey Oil &amp; Gas almost 15%.\n\nViews on the BoE are flooding in, as per normal on these days. Here's a selection: \"The UK is not out of the woods in the fight against price growth. Food price inflation has surged in recent months, energy prices are up, and services inflation remains elevated, indicating a broad base of pressures. There are also several upside risks to prices, including increased domestic labour costs and potential spillovers from recent geopolitical uncertainty. On the whole, we expect the Bank to maintain a cautious approach to monetary easing, implementing just one further rate cut this year.\" – Sam Miley, head of forecasting at the CEBR. \"As expected, the BoE left rates on hold with investors left largely expecting two further 0.25% cuts for the rest of the year and one further cut in 2026, thereby leaving the terminal rate at c. 3.50%. With the BoE navigating persistent services inflation, rising oil prices, and weakening economic data, it’s a tricky balancing act as to where the end-terminal rate may well be, as such a cautious approach is being taken.\" – Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. \"The Bank should have continued its rate cutting cycle, by lowering rates by 0.25 today. This year’s GDP growth has been lower than expected, in large part because interest rates are being kept high for long. Even when considering still elevated inflation, the Bank continues to run an overly restrictive policy, and it is harming ordinary households.\" – Carsten Jung, associate director for economic policy at IPPR. \"The Bank of England’s goal over the last two years has been to slowly bring down inflation without crashing the economy – achieving a so-called soft landing, that’s not easy at the best of times let alone when the economic data is unreliable. Official data suggests the Bank has so far done a pretty good job, with the UK labour market holding up well. The problem is that data has never been more unreliable, and elsewhere there are signs of strain... Conflict in the Middle East risks higher energy prices potentially pushing inflation higher – though calling the course of events there is almost certainly a mugs game, and the Bank has said that under current conditions it expects inflation to remain broadly at current levels for the rest of the year. The risk is that all the uncertainty leaves the Bank paralysed, with rates stuck at their current level. With uncertain data, policy setters will need a really compelling reason to hike or cut interest rates and that could result in default driven decisions.\" – Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club.\n\nTraders have added to bets on a BoE rate cut in August, now seeing an 80% chance. This was around 60% earlier in the week. This has put a little dent in the pound, which has flipped from being up slightly versus the dollar to down 0.1% at $1.3405 now, with a similar but smaller move against the euro. The MPC minutes show that policymakers Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor voted to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4%, the same three that have voted against the tide before (December). A staff forecast now sees UK Q2 GDP growth of around 0.25% compared to Q1, up from May's forecast of just 0.1%. The MPC said it \"will remain sensitive to heightened unpredictability in the economic and geopolitical environment\" but said \"recent global developments had not had a significant impact\" on this meeting’s decision, though global uncertainty \"remains elevated\" and the escalated Middle East conflict has increased energy prices, while trade policy uncertainty will continue to hurt the UK economy. The provisional staff analysis suggests the direct impact of US tariffs on global GDP could be smaller than expected last month.\n\nThe BoE's monetary policy committee has kept Bank Rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. Interestingly, the MPC voted by a majority of 6-3 to maintain rates. Three members preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.

FTSE 100 Live: Stocks cut losses as BoE holds rates, AIM celebrates 30th anniversary

The FTSE 100 fell 52 points to 8,792 as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran pressured markets, while the Bank of England maintained interest rates at 4.25%. Oil prices rose 2.3% amid concerns over potential supply disruptions. The UK's AIM market celebrated its 30th anniversary, with highlights including the success of companies like Hiscox and Genus that transitioned from AIM to the FTSE 100/250. Thames Water faced potential nationalization amid financial struggles, and several companies, including Hays and NCC Group PLC, saw stock declines due to earnings reports and macroeconomic uncertainty.