Light crude oil futures edged higher Monday as traders tested the 200-day moving average at $64.08. A sustained break above this level could open the door to $65.38—the long-term pivot—and the 50-day moving average at $65.50. If buyers can hold over $65.50, technical targets stretch to $66.64 and beyond. However, a drop below the June low at $62.69 risks a rapid sell-off. At 13:38 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $64.17, up $0.29 or +0.45%. Markets are watching closely as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska for Ukraine peace talks. Trump has threatened steep tariffs on Indian goods—up to 50%—unless New Delhi reduces Russian oil imports, a move that could unsettle global crude flows. India imported about 1.8 million bpd of Russian crude in the first half of the year, making up 37% of its total intake. While traders remain skeptical of follow-through—dismissing it as another 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out)—tightening sanctions could disrupt supply of medium sour grades like Russia’s Urals. Replacement barrels from Saudi Arabia or Iraq could push up prices for these grades. UBS has cut its year-end Brent forecast to $62 from $68, citing stronger-than-expected supply from South America and steady sanctioned exports. An Exxon-led consortium began production four months early at a fourth offshore vessel in Guyana, adding barrels to the market. Analysts expect OPEC+ to pause production hikes unless larger disruptions occur. Saudi Arabia will reduce September crude shipments to China to 1.43 million bpd from August’s 1.65 million bpd after raising prices for Asian buyers. The Arab Light premium now stands at $3.20 over Oman/Dubai quotes, the highest since April. Sinopec, PetroChina, and other refiners will scale back purchases, while Indian refiners received full September allocations but refrained from requesting more amid U.S. pressure on Russian imports. The inability to reclaim the 50-day moving average keeps WTI in a vulnerable technical position. Failure to defend $62.69 support would likely accelerate selling, as additional barrels from Guyana and South America pressure prices. Any geopolitical premium from U.S.-Russia-India tensions is being ignored for now, leaving crude susceptible to a downside break.

Oil News: WTI Futures Struggle Below 50-Day Moving Average – Analysis

Light crude oil futures traded near $64.17 on August 8, 2025, testing the 200-day moving average at $64.08, with technical targets at $65.38 and $65.50. A break above $65.50 could extend prices to $66.64, but a drop below $62.69 risks a rapid sell-off. Traders are monitoring U.S.-Russia-India geopolitical tensions, including President Donald Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on Indian goods if New Delhi reduces Russian oil imports. India imported 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first half of 2025, accounting for 37% of its total intake. UBS has lowered its year-end Brent forecast to $62 from $68 due to stronger supply from South America and sanctioned Russian exports. An Exxon-led consortium began production four months early at a fourth offshore vessel in Guyana, increasing market supply. OPEC+ is expected to pause production hikes unless major disruptions occur. Saudi Arabia will reduce its September shipments to China to 1.43 million bpd from 1.65 million bpd and raise prices for Asian buyers. The Arab Light premium is at $3.20 over Oman/Dubai, the highest since April. Sinopec, PetroChina, and other refiners are scaling back purchases, while Indian refiners received full September allocations but did not request additional volumes amid U.S. pressure on Russian imports. The market remains vulnerable due to lack of support above $62.69 and increased supply from Guyana and South America.