BNP Paribas Exane upgrades Novo Nordisk stock to Neutral from Underperform\n\nBNP Paribas (OTC: BNPQY) Exane upgraded Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) (NOVOB:DC) from Underperform to Neutral on Wednesday, while lowering its price target to DKK345.00 from DKK405.00.\n\nThe research firm updated its forecasts to better reflect current and future prescription, foreign exchange, and pricing trends, resulting in 2025-30 sales and earnings per share estimates that are 1-9% and 2-17% below consensus, respectively.\n\nBNP Paribas Exane projects sales and EPS compound annual growth rates of 7% and 8%, compared to consensus estimates of 9% and 11%, and has adopted a more conservative outlook for the period following semaglutide’s loss of exclusivity in 2032.\n\nThe firm’s new price target is derived from a net present value calculation using an 8% weighted average cost of capital and 0% growth rate post-2040, with a bull-bear valuation range of DKK565-250.\n\nAccording to BNP Paribas Exane, the upgrade to Neutral reflects a more balanced near-term risk-reward profile, noting that free cash flow of $23 billion into perpetuity would be needed to support a 30% share price upside, compared to the company’s fiscal year 2025 guidance of $5-7 billion.

BNP Paribas Exane upgrades Novo Nordisk stock to Neutral from Underperform

BNP Paribas Exane has upgraded Novo Nordisk's stock rating from Underperform to Neutral, lowering its price target from DKK405.00 to DKK345.00. The firm adjusted its sales and earnings per share forecasts to be 1-9% and 2-17% below consensus, respectively, citing changes in prescription trends, foreign exchange rates, and pricing dynamics. It projects compound annual growth rates of 7% for sales and 8% for EPS, compared to consensus of 9% and 11%. The firm has adopted a more conservative outlook due to semaglutide's loss of exclusivity in 2032. The new price target is based on a net present value calculation using an 8% weighted average cost of capital and 0% growth post-2040, with a bull-bear valuation range of DKK565-250. The upgrade reflects a more balanced risk-reward profile, as a $23 billion free cash flow into perpetuity would be required for a 30% share price upside, compared to Novo Nordisk's FY2025 guidance of $5-7 billion.