Vaxcyte, Inc. shares have dropped 40% since my last review of this clinical stage concern in late 2023. The company has promising late-stage pneumococcal vaccine candidates, but sentiment on the vaccine space is quite negative right now with the new head of the HHS mostly to blame. Vaxcyte does have a fortress balance sheet and positive analyst ratings it should be noted. An updated analysis around PCVX stock follows in the paragraphs below. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.

Today, I am putting Vaxcyte, Inc. (NASDAQ:PCVX) in the spotlight for the first time since late 2023. I concluded my last on this clinical stage vaccine stating the shares looked "fully valued" and declined any investment recommendation around the shares. The stock has dropped approximately 40% since then, prompting a revisit. An updated analysis follows below.

Vaxcyte, Inc. is headquartered in San Carlos, CA. The company is focused on developing conjugate and novel protein vaccines to prevent or treat bacterial infectious diseases. The stock currently trades around $37.00 a share and sports an approximate market capitalization of $4.8 billion.

Pipeline: May 2025 Company Presentation
Vaxcyte has several vaccines in development. This article will concentrate on those candidates that are in clinical stage development. Both of these candidates were developed off Vaxcyte's proprietary XpressCF™ cell-free protein synthesis platform.

Both of these are pneumococcal conjugate vaccines or PCVs. This is a category that is currently dominated by the Prevnar franchise owned by Pfizer.

Management believes it is developing potential "best of breed" candidates in what is an over $8 billion annual market. In March, the company released Phase 2 dose finding around VAX-24, which is the Vaxcyte's 24-valent PCV candidate being evaluated to prevent invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in healthy infants. The results were positive and had safety and tolerability comparable to industry leading Prevnar 20. The stock plunged during the time of the release of data, but that might have been more due to the abrupt and surprise of FDA's top vaccine regulator that came out around the same time. The rest of the data from this study should come out late this year.

The other candidate Vaxcyte has in late-stage development, both for adults and pediatrics, is VAX-31. This is a next-generation PCV candidate. VAX-31 contains 31 valents and addresses over 90% of pneumococcal disease currently circulating in the U.S. Vaxcyte will kick off a pivotal, non-inferiority study shortly. Topline safety, tolerability and immunogenicity data out sometime in 2026. To date, VAX-31 has been well-tolerated and has shown a similar safety profile to Prevnar20. It also has demonstrated robust immune responses.

VAX-31 is being pursued on the pediatric level as well, but that effort is behind the program targeting adults. Data from a Phase 2 dosing study is due out sometime midyear 2026.

Analyst Commentary & Balance Sheet: The analyst community is positive on Vaxcyte's prospects. Since the company posted its first quarter on May 8th, Leerink Partners ($65 price target), TD Cowen ($85 price target, down from $135 previously), Bank of America ($137 price target) and Needham ($90 price target) have reissued Buy ratings on the stock. Just over 10% of the outstanding float of the shares is currently held short. One of the strongest parts of any investment thesis around Vaxcyte is its . The company ended the first quarter with $2.95 billion in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet after burning through around $185 million of cash during the quarter to support operations. Vaxcyte listed no long-term debt on the it filed for the quarter. Several insiders were consistent and frequent sellers of the shares throughout 2024. That behavior has continued into 2025 as insiders have disposed of approximately $6 million worth of equity collectively so far this year.

Conclusion: There are several caveats around any kind of investment case around Vaxcyte, Inc. even as the PCV market is large and predicted to continue to grow at a solid clip. First the company came public five years after being incorporated as SutroVax in 2013. In that time, the company has never gotten across the finish line to FDA approval. In addition, it is still several years away from potential commercialization with no major milestones until 2026.

That means the stock is likely to be driven by sentiment. And right now, sentiment is not positive around vaccine concerns, to understate things. The new head of HHS, RFK Jr., has been a long-time skeptic of many vaccines. He seems particularly skeptical around the number of pediatric vaccines being recommended, and the FDA just their recommendation around the latest Covid vaccine for children and pregnant women. Five weeks ago, Vinay Prasad, a well-known Covid-19 booster and industry critic was to head the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research division. Earlier this week, RFK Jr. the entire expert panel that advises the CDC around new vaccines calling the panel a "rubber stamp" and too connected to the industry. This Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) panel had been instrumental in PCV vaccine approvals it should be noted.

Therefore, discretion appears to be the best part of valor here even with the stock down some 40% since I last looked at Vaxcyte, Inc. This is a name I will circle back on in 2026 when the company's primary candidates are nearer to approval. Hopefully by then, there will be more certainty around vaccine approvals and more positive investment sentiment on this niche of the biotech market.

Vaxcyte: Sentiment Is Pushing The Shares Down (NASDAQ:PCVX)

Vaxcyte, Inc. (NASDAQ:PCVX) has seen its stock drop 40% since late 2023 amid negative sentiment in the vaccine space, driven by skepticism from the new HHS head, RFK Jr. The biotech company develops pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) with two clinical-stage candidates, VAX-24 and VAX-31, and maintains a strong balance sheet. Analysts remain positive, but regulatory challenges and industry skepticism persist.