Piper Sandler's analyst, Ryan Todd, has increased the price target for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to $182 from the previous $175 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the company's shares before the upcoming Q2 earnings report. The analyst notes that there might be a slight decline within the independent refiner sector following its recent surge. However, Todd points out that upward earnings revisions for the latter half of the year, alongside strong distillate performance and a tightening in global supply and demand for products projected for 2026 and 2027, could lend some stability to the sector.\n\nMPC Key Business Developments\n\nRelease Date: May 06, 2025\n\nNet Loss: $0.24 per share for the first quarter.\nShareholder Returns: Over $1.3 billion returned through dividends and repurchases.\nAdjusted EBITDA: Approximately $2 billion, a sequential decrease of $145 million.\nRefining Utilization: 89%, processing 2.6 million barrels of crude per day.\nR&M Segment Adjusted EBITDA: $1.91 per barrel for the quarter.\nMidstream Segment Adjusted EBITDA: 8% year-over-year increase.\nDistributions from MPLX: $619 million, a 12.5% increase year-over-year.\nRenewable Diesel Utilization: 70% due to unplanned downtime.\nOperating Cash Flow: $1 billion for the quarter.\nWorking Capital: $1.1 billion use of cash, primarily due to inventory builds.\nCapital Expenditures and Investments: $795 million for the quarter.\nSenior Notes Issuance: $2 billion issued by MPC.\nConsolidated Cash Position: $3.8 billion at the end of the quarter.\nProjected Throughput Volumes: 2.8 million barrels per day for the second quarter.\nTurnaround Expense: Approximately $265 million projected for the second quarter.\n\nFor the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.\n\nPositive Points\n\nMarathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) achieved a refining utilization rate of 89% despite completing significant planned turnaround activities, indicating strong operational management.\nThe company reported a 104% capture rate, showcasing strong commercial performance even in a period of low refining margins.\nMPC's midstream segment adjusted EBITDA grew by 8% year over year, reflecting robust performance in this area.\nMPLX, a subsidiary of MPC, announced over $1 billion in strategic acquisitions, enhancing its midstream natural gas and NGL growth strategies.\nMPC is progressing with a $1.25 billion standalone capital plan for 2025, focusing on high-return projects that improve market volatility capitalization.\n\nNegative Points\n\nMPC reported a first-quarter net loss of $0.24 per share, indicating financial challenges during the period.\nThe renewable diesel segment faced a challenging environment, with facilities running at only 70% utilization due to unplanned downtime.\nThe company experienced a $1.1 billion use of cash for the quarter, primarily driven by inventory builds, impacting cash flow.\nMPC's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was approximately $2 billion lower sequentially, affected by decreased results in refining and marketing segments.\nInterest expenses saw a significant increase, partly due to net issuance of debt, impacting overall financial performance.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Target Price Raised Ahead of Q2 Report

Piper Sandler raised its price target for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to $182 from $175 while maintaining a Neutral rating before the Q2 earnings report. MPC reported a first-quarter net loss of $0.24 per share, adjusted EBITDA of $2 billion (a sequential decline), and 89% refining utilization. The company highlighted strong midstream performance, $1.3 billion in shareholder returns, and $619 million in MPLX distributions. However, renewable diesel utilization dropped to 70% due to unplanned downtime, and the company faced $1.1 billion in cash use from inventory builds.