Forex news for North American trading on Jun 13, 2025\n\nThe U.S. dollar moved higher overnight (and coming into the US session), driven by classic flight-to-safety flows following Israel's strike on Iran. However, U.S. yields did not follow the usual script—instead of falling amid geopolitical stress, they moved higher.\n\nThis divergence from the typical Pavlovian response raises questions. It may reflect rising oil prices and the renewed threat of inflation, which can put upward pressure on yields. Alternatively, it could be a technical retracement, with yields rebounding after recently dipping below key benchmarks—4% for the 2-year, 4.5% for the 10-year, and 5% for the 30-year—that had served as rough markers for the yield curve in recent weeks.\n\nOr perhaps it’s something broader: investor fatigue with the constant swings in policy tone from the Trump administration and escalating global tensions. Whatever the reason, markets are behaving less predictably—adding another layer of complexity for traders and policymakers alike.\n\nRegardless of the reason, today yields moved higher.\n\nLooking at the near-closing levels in the US debt market:\n2 year yield 3.952%, +4.6 basis points.\n5-year yield 4.008%, +4.9 basis points\n10 year yield 4.408%, +5.2 basis points.\n30 year yield 4.901%, +5.9 basis points\n\nThe U.S. dollar initially rose on the back of flight-to-safety flows, but those gains began to fade as the day progressed. While the greenback is still closing higher against all major currency pairs, it has pulled back significantly from its intraday highs.\n\nDespite the late-day retracement, a look at end-of-day levels shows the dollar posted gains across the board, finishing stronger versus each of the major currencies.\nEUR 0.38%\nGBP 0.39%\nJPY +0.39%\nCHF +0.15%\nCAD +0.06%\nAUD +0.72%\nNZD +0.96%\n\nFor the trading week, although the USD was higher for the day, it was lower for the week:\nEUR -1.79%\nGBP -0.26%\nJPY -0.53%\nCHF -1.26%\nCAD -0.70%\nAUD unchanged\nNZD -0.06%\n\nUS stocks fell in trading today and that helped to push the major indices negative for the week:\nDow -1.79% for the day and -1.32% for the week\nS&P -1.13% for the day and -0.39% for the week.\nNASDAQ index -1.30% for the day and -0.63% of Week.\n\nLooking ahead, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are expected to keep markets on edge, fueling ongoing uncertainty. At the same time, a packed central bank calendar will shape the direction of global monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve taking center stage on Wednesday.\n\nWhile the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, the market’s attention will be firmly on the policy statement, economic projections, and the dot plot outlining future rate expectations. This comes on the heels of cooler-than-expected inflation data, which has eased some pressure. However, the potential inflationary impact of tariffs remains a concern, as does the risk of softening labor markets.\n\nOther key central banks will also be in the spotlight. The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Tuesday—no change is expected as policymakers remain firmly dovish. On Thursday, the Bank of England is also expected to hold rates steady, while the Swiss National Bank is anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, potentially lowering its policy rate to 0.00%.\n\nBeyond central banks, the economic calendar is also active, featuring U.S. retail sales, Australian employment figures, and the latest reading on UK GDP—all of which could provide further insight into the global growth outlook.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Jun: Markets are in flux as Israel and Iran lob bombs

The U.S. dollar rose overnight amid flight-to-safety flows following Israel's strike on Iran, but U.S. yields unexpectedly increased, raising questions about inflation, technical retracements, or investor fatigue. Markets remained volatile as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran persisted, with central banks set to influence global monetary policy.