By 2028, 75% of organizations with stated sustainable packaging targets will sunset voluntary goals in favor of adopting legislative guidelines, according to analyst company Gartner. Chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) must prepare internal profit and loss (P&amp;L) owners for increased costs associated with new packaging legislation, which could rise to millions of dollars, Gartner advised.\n\n“By the end of this year, Gartner predicts that 90% of public sustainable packaging commitments will remain unmet, as organizations continue to rely on plastics and single-use packaging,” said John Blake, Senior Director Analyst in Gartner's Supply Chain practice. “With packaging rules rapidly evolving, CSCOs must shift their focus to meeting extended producer responsibility (EPR) requirements, which will demand new investments in data management, package design and compliance resources.” \n\nAs voluntary efforts fall short, several US states have passed packaging EPR legislation, and packaging EPR is emerging as a global policy trend that shifts the financial responsibility for packaging waste and recycling to producers and manufacturers.\n\nEPR laws require organizations to register with a Producer Responsibility Organization (PRO), an entity that manages collection, recycling, and reporting obligations for producers. Companies must submit detailed data on packaging materials, quantities, and recyclability, and comply with varying rules across jurisdictions.\n\n“Many organizations are currently unprepared for these new requirements, lacking the data management tools and resources needed for compliance. Longer term, legislation can lead to significant costs for PRO fees and fines, alternative materials, and supply chain adjustments,” said Blake.\n\nLegislation is now the primary force shaping product and packaging design strategies, replacing the previous focus on cost and consumer appeal. Companies must align packaging with new sustainability, labeling, and reuse requirements, often within the limits of current recycling infrastructure.\n\nKey impacts include:\nAdapting supply chains and logistics for reusable packaging systems, such as collection and redistribution\nAccelerating packaging redesign cycles, which can take two years or more\nIncorporating legislative requirements into new product development and capital planning\nDelaying adaptation may result in higher long-term costs, fees, or even loss of market access for noncompliance. \n\nGartner concluded that CSCOs in impacted industries should:\nEducate all functional teams—including marketing, R&amp;D, manufacturing, risk, compliance, and IT—on the implications and risks of packaging EPR legislation\nEngage the entire supply chain ecosystem (suppliers, procurement, transportation, manufacturing) to address the complexities of sourcing sustainable materials and implementing return networks for reusable packaging, including systems for collection and redistribution. Incorporate packaging legislation as a central consideration in corporate packaging strategies, as it will directly impact design, material sourcing, and manufacturing decisions going forward. \n\nNoncompliance with packaging legislation poses significant risks to market position, including fines, penalties, and potential loss of market access. Gartner added that organizations that proactively address legislative requirements can mitigate these risks and gain a competitive advantage by:\nDesigning packaging for circularity\nAligning material choices to recycling infrastructure in target markets\nEnsuring package dimensions, labeling, and color additives do not render packaging nonrecyclable\nConfirming suppliers can provide adequate quantities of sustainable packaging materials \n\n“Organizations that fail to prioritize packaging legislation in their design and sourcing strategies risk losing market access and eroding margins as EPR fees rise. Proactive compliance protects market position and also creates opportunities for differentiation in an increasingly regulated environment,” said Blake.

Gartner: 75% of organizations with voluntary sustainable packaging targets will align instead to legislative guidelines by 2028

Gartner predicts that 75% of organizations with voluntary sustainable packaging targets will adopt legislative guidelines by 2028, as new packaging regulations force companies to adapt supply chains, redesign packaging, and comply with extended producer responsibility (EPR) requirements. Key impacts include increased costs, delays in adaptation, and risks of noncompliance, prompting supply chain officers to prioritize legislative alignment.