Five Things That Might Move July 2025’s Job Report (SP500)

Jul. 31, 2025 12:36 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Follow * 5 Share * Save * (7min) Summary * Expect July's jobs report to show mixed signals: healthcare and government hiring may offset declines in automotive parts and wholesale trade. * Upward revisions to prior months and Q2 GDP growth suggest stronger labor market momentum, but federal layoffs and ICE enforcement could weigh on jobs. * Healthcare hiring remains resilient, but investors should be cautious with hospital REITs and monitor sector-specific risks in agriculture and manufacturing. * Position your portfolio toward sectors with job growth and avoid those facing layoffs or margin pressure, as economic sensitivity could increase investment risk.

In early July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted that . The negligible change in the unemployment rate of 4.1% factored into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. It supported the FOMC’s decision to hold the . What will the BLS report in Friday’s July report? Prior revisions, the federal government hiring freeze, federal layoffs, and immigration enforcement are the unexpected factors that might hurt the job situation. Government employment growth momentum from June, along with health care and social assistance job increases, might keep unemployment rates unchanged.

What are the five things that might move the upcoming jobs report?

1. Unexpected Revisions In the last report, the BLS revised the April NFP figures up by 11,000. This raised the employment to 158,000, up from 147,000. Similarly, the Bureau raised May figures by $5,000. That increased the figure to 144,000, from 139,000. The upward revisions suggest July’s report might likely include an upward revision to June and May data. In the second quarter, GDP rose by 3.0% Q/Q, . Even though GDP figures are subject to a large revision, corporations may have increased their hiring in June and July. That would raise the monthly NFP to levels not seen since July–October 2023 and in April 2024. In the chart below, NFP neared 200,000 several times in the last two years. It exceeded that level seven times. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2. Federal Layoffs Federal government jobs fell by 7,000 in June, compared to a 47,000 increase in state government employment. The education sector skewed the increase by adding 40,000, while local government education added 23,000. Federal job declines may accelerate, depending on the end of severance payments. The BLS noted that “employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.” After Tesla () CEO Elon Musk departed from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), readers should infer that the pace of job cuts will slow significantly. On , view the recent contract cuts where the savings are unsubstantial. DOGE Although the second page reports savings of $9 million or more, the related government jobs cut from them are not likely to move July’s job report. DOGE cuts

3. Immigration and Customs Enforcement The recent headline news on the Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdown on companies has slowed. Still, investors should not be complacent about its impact on the job situation. The U.S. Senate approved around . This might negatively affect labor in agriculture, construction, food manufacturing, and hospitality. , those sectors face worker shortages. In the near term, a shortage of agricultural workers risks indirectly adding pressure on profit margins for companies like Nutrien (), Deer (), Corteva (), Archer-Daniels-Midland (), and AGCO (). In the last month, however, only CTVA stock traded lower, while AGCO stock gained over 10%. Seeking Alpha Nutrien has the best quant factor grades and has the best sector rank. ADM stock is next, where it ranks 85/178. Seeking Alpha

4. Job Growth Demand for healthcare jobs will likely increase again. Healthcare needs in the U.S. are growing as the population ages. Fed interest rate policy, tariffs, and inflationary pressures will not change this trend. Investors would still need to tread carefully with hospital facility REITs. For example, Medical Properties () posted net impairments . Similarly, the correlation to job growth and the drug sector is random. Bristol-Myers Squibb () posted strong results and trades at a 7.28 times forward P/E. The stock fell by 3.66% . AbbVie () managed past its Humira patent expiry crisis and Rinvoq sales by 62% and 42% Y/Y, respectively. Humira sales fell by 58%. Novo Nordisk’s () over 20% drop is unrelated to healthcare job growth. The obesity drugmaker posted that would hurt its full-year outlook.

5. Job Declines Wholesale trade jobs fell in June. Employment in motor vehicles and parts also fell. This is consistent with the trend of consumers choosing to delay vehicle maintenance. Readers may now observe how consumers behave in the face of ongoing inflation and tariffs. The 15% , 19% , and 35% tariffs might start to matter.

Your Takeaway The upcoming job report might be like the tale of . Jobs might grow in healthcare and government, more than offsetting a drop in automotive parts and wholesale trade. Investors should continue to position their holdings in sectors that hire more staff. Keep watch on sectors that cut jobs in response to lower demand and falling profit margins. Holding those economically sensitive companies might hurt and add to unnecessary investment risks. Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. This article was written by 34.84K Followers Follow Chris Lau is an individual investor and economist with 30 years of experience covering life science, technology, and dividend-growth income stocks. He has degrees in Microbiology and Economics. Chris runs the investing group where he shares his top stock picks of undervalued stocks with catalysts for upside, dividend-income recommendations with quant and payment calendar tracking, high upside plays, and research requests to help you become a better do-it-yourself investor. The returns from the public articles are: 2023 Average Return: 8.4% 2022 Average Return: 6.9% 2021 Average Return 29.9% 2020.

Five Things That Might Move July 2025’s Job Report (SP500)

The July 2025 jobs report is expected to show mixed signals, with healthcare and government hiring potentially offsetting declines in automotive parts and wholesale trade. Upward revisions to prior months and Q2 GDP growth suggest stronger labor market momentum, but federal layoffs and ICE enforcement could weigh on jobs. Healthcare hiring remains resilient, while sectors like agriculture and manufacturing face risks. Investors are advised to position portfolios toward job-growth sectors and avoid those facing layoffs.