Global patent disputes among mRNA vaccine manufacturers intensify as GSK continues legal actions against BioNTech and Pfizer in the U.S. and Europe, despite a settlement between CureVac, BioNTech, and Pfizer to end their U.S. patent litigation. The settlement includes a non-exclusive license from CureVac to BioNTech and Pfizer for manufacturing and selling mRNA-based COVID-19 and influenza products, with financial compensation involving $370 million and royalties. BioNTech will pay GSK $370 million and 1% royalties on U.S. sales, an additional $130 million and 1% royalties on rest-of-world sales post-acquisition, while Pfizer will reimburse BioNTech $80 million and half of claimed royalties. CureVac also receives $370 million and 1% royalties on U.S. sales, plus 1% on rest-of-world sales after acquisition. GSK maintains separate litigation against BioNTech, Pfizer, and Moderna in the Unified Patent Court and Ireland, citing that the settlement does not affect its enforcement of its own patents. The legal battles involve multiple law firms, including Bird & Bird, Powell Gilbert, and Freshfields, with key judges in The Hague overseeing proceedings. The UPC is emerging as a central venue for pharmaceutical patent disputes, particularly in mRNA technology, with seven related lawsuits now active.

The global mRNA platform market was valued at $152.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to decline to $129.1 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of -2.7%. This report highlights the technology's role in vaccine and therapeutic development, driven by advancements in lipid nanoparticle delivery, synthetic biology, and bioinformatics. Key applications include COVID-19 vaccines, cancer treatments, and other diseases. Market growth is fueled by rising infectious disease incidence, technological improvements, regulatory support, and substantial public and private investments. The U.S. market is valued at $64.5 billion in 2024, with China expected to grow at 0.1% CAGR to reach $13.8 billion by 2030. The cancer vaccine segment is projected to grow at an 86.1% CAGR, while the COVID-19 vaccine segment is expected to reach $102.1 billion by 2030 at a -6.3% CAGR. Major players include BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Catalent Pharma Solutions, and several startups such as Providence Therapeutics and pHion Therapeutics. Recent market activity includes Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine approvals, scaling production, and partnerships like Novartis' agreement with Pfizer-BioNTech.

The article outlines three key factors that could influence Moderna's future performance: the impact of changing regulatory guidelines on its COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax, the potential commercial success of its RSV vaccine mResvia following recent label expansions, and the progress of its late-stage mRNA vaccine candidates, including mRNA-1010 for influenza and mRNA-4157 in combination with Merck's Keytruda for melanoma. The article also notes that Moderna's stock remains high-risk but offers significant upside potential, and while the Motley Fool recommends the stock, it was not included in their list of the top 10 stocks to buy now.

American researchers from IBM and Moderna have used quantum computing to simulate the secondary structure of a 60-nucleotide mRNA sequence, the longest ever achieved on a quantum computer. The simulation leveraged a variational quantum algorithm with error correction on IBM's R2 Heron processor, which has 156 qubits. This marks a significant advancement over previous quantum simulations of 42-nucleotide sequences and highlights the potential of quantum computing to model complex molecular folding, particularly pseudo-junctions that classical AI models like AlphaFold cannot fully capture. The study, published on arXiv, suggests that scaling up to 354 qubits in noise-free conditions could further improve accuracy and enable prediction of longer mRNA sequences, though practical implementation requires advances in quantum hardware and error mitigation.

Eli Lilly is facing significant challenges due to the U.S. government's decision to cut funding for mRNA vaccine research, which has led to financial uncertainty and strategic realignment within the biotech sector. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has suspended nearly $500 million in contracts supporting mRNA advancements, impacting major pharmaceutical companies including Eli Lilly, Moderna, and Pfizer. This shift in policy, which prioritizes broader vaccine platforms over mRNA technology, has sparked controversy, especially among experts who highlight mRNA's proven efficacy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The funding cuts affect not only infectious disease vaccines but also potential mRNA-based cancer therapies, raising concerns in the oncology community. Eli Lilly is now required to reassess its research priorities, balance its traditional therapeutics portfolio with mRNA initiatives, and explore alternative funding or partnerships to sustain innovation.